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According to PMR’s latest forecasts, in 2019-2024 the wholesale market for pharmacies will grow at an average annual rate of 4.5% in terms of value. In the forecast period, we do not anticipate any material one-off events (e.g. legal changes) that could have a significant impact on the market dynamics.
The market development will be positively influenced, among others, by epidemiological factors and the development of the 75+ Programme. The drivers of development will be hormonal drugs and drugs used in blood and hematopoietic system diseases. In the longer term, we also expect that the limitation of network development will have a positive impact on the wholesale market for pharmacies. Thus, their bargaining power towards wholesalers will decrease, which will result in higher prices.
The results in the following years will also be affected by macroeconomic factors. In the following years, it will slow down the GDP growth rate. Its dynamics will continue to be above 3% (in the first years of the forecast). High dynamics of household consumption, good situation on the labour market and growth of disposable income will significantly contribute to the growth of the market value. However, within the forecast horizon, we expect a gradual slowdown in the growth rate of consumption. The dynamics of wage growth will also slow down and unemployment will stabilise.
Not without significance is also the demographic factor. An increase in the share of older people, who are a significant group of drug consumers, will positively affect demand.