PMR and Upper Finance report: 40 da Vinci robots in 2025
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Estimates based on the results of a survey conducted specifically for the report of PMR and Upper Finance Group show that there should be about 40-50 robots in a country the size of Poland. Taking into account the degree of market development, the way healthcare is financed and macroeconomic conditions, we can expect a total of about 40 installations by the end of 2025.
Market size and growth forecasts
In 2019, about 900 surgical procedures were performed with the support of da Vinci system. The market value in 2019 was 85.8 million zlotys. Compared to the first quarter of 2019, in the first quarter of 2020 there was a 51% increase in the number of performed procedures. This increase could have been much higher if not for the pandemic, which affected the dynamics of some centers. It is worth noting, however, that despite these obstacles, our estimates indicate that the year 2020 will end with an extremely dynamic growth.
Such a high dynamics results not only from the trend of purchasing new equipment by medical facilities in Poland, but also from the increase in efficiency and applications per device. We estimate that the effectiveness of the devices will increase at least twice in the analyzed period. It is connected with increasing awareness of this technology among specialists and patients. The manufacturer itself is still improving and developing this tool. Rapid growth is also a result of low market penetration – for example, in the United States, robotics surgery has up to 98% penetration in urological procedures, while in our country, despite the obvious benefits, this range is still small.
Financing procedures on the robotic surgery market
It is worth noting that the market dynamics would be even higher if a separate program of financing these procedures by the NFZ were introduced. The Ministry of Health announced such changes, however, at the time of preparing this report the moment of realization of these promises was difficult to predict. However, we expect that such a move is inevitable because of the benefits of this method (more information in the report), the significant involvement of public funds in the purchase of robotic systems and the growing number of public entities that have a surgical system da Vinci. Our forecast assumes the introduction of dedicated public financing of robotic procedures from 2023. We assume the evolution of average prices for surgery from PLN 45,000 to PLN 40,000 between 2020-2022, and then from PLN 40,000 to PLN 36,000 between 2023-2025.
The factors determining the evolution of average prices for the treatment will be:
- increases in the volume of performed procedures
- increase in competitiveness / emergence of new, competitive robot systems
- the emergence of dedicated public financing of robotics treatments.
Intuitive Sugical announced its introduction in the fourth quarter of 2020. The “Extended Use Program”, under which the company plans to introduce selected instruments/tools used in da Vinci Xi/X systems with the use horizon from 12 to 18 applications, compared to the current 10. The instruments included in the program are used in many da Vinci operations. Their increased use can have a positive impact on patient treatment costs.